James Alberino
2 units
Pittsburgh’s offensive line downgraded a lot this offseason after they lost Pouncey, Decastro and Villanueva and the Bills front 7 got better. As good as the Steelers front 7 is they have problems at corner – they’re thin at nickel and Josh Allen should move the ball a lot in the slot on high percentage throws to Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Pittsburgh’s #2 corner spot is shaky too and they’ve been making calls to trade for a cornerback. Josh Allen had a 20:6 TD:INT ratio last year at home and the Steelers defense will probably be on the field for a few long drives with Beasley and Sanders moving the ball a lot and setting up Diggs down the field. TJ Watt has been holding out all summer – I bet this expecting him to play, so his status doesn’t change the bet. The Bills won 8 of their last 9 games last season by double digits and they beat Pittsburgh 26-15 in December. Buffalo won 12 games since October 1st last year and 10 of those they would’ve covered -6.5. Buffalo also went 8-4 ATS as a single digit favorite last season and 5-2 ATS as a single digit favorite at home. Roethlisberger should have to chase points throughout the game and the Bills front 7 definitely has the advantage over Pittsburgh’s O line. It will be loud in Buffalo to start the season after a run to the AFC Championship. Bills by double digits.
