Saints -2.5 at Washington – 2 units
Right after the Saints lost to the Panthers and looked terrible they bounced back on the road and beat the Patriots by 15 and Mac Jones had 3 INTs. Now they’re off a loss in a game they were up 11 with 7 minutes left and let the Giants come back. The Saints dominated in 2 of their wins and looked ugly in 2 of their losses. The Panthers loss had a lot to do with the Saints not having 12 coaches on gameday because of Covid. Now 2-2 right before the bye they play a team who has problems at linebacker and in the secondary. Washington is last in the NFL in 3rd down defensive %. Linebacker is one of the biggest weaknesses on the team and Alvin Kamara should have mismatches in the pass game. Armstead and McCoy are out on the Oline but New Orleans has good depth. Washington’s secondary shuffled their corners the last couple of games and have a few guys playing the outside who are losing their matchups most weeks. Take away the game vs the Panthers and Jameis has a 8:0 TD:INT ratio this season and is better with Payton than anyone else in his career. QBs vs Washington’s defense have a 10:1 TD:INT ratio. QBs vs New Orleans defense have a 5:7 ratio. The Saints have the #3 rush defense in the league in terms of yards per attempt (3.1) and the #1 redzone defense. Antonio Gibson has a stress fracture in his shin and won’t be close to 100%. Logan Thomas is out for Washington and the Saints will have arguably their best defensive player to help limit Washington’s best player Terry McLaurin. The forecast for this game a few days ago called for rain but now it looks like there will be little to no rain. If it does rain the Saints have the better run defense and the better (and healthier) RB for short yardage situations. Sean Payton is 33-16-1 ATS (67.3%) on the road since 2015, #1 in the NFL. The Saints best game is the way they looked vs Green Bay and New England. Washington’s best hasn’t looked close to that and their 2 wins are a comeback vs the Falcons and a 1 point win vs the Giants. Way better 3rddown defense, better red zone defense, and better run defense in a bounceback spot with a short #. Let’s go Saints.