Falcons +10 is in for 2.5 units and Texans +10 for 1 unit on the late card.

Quick thoughts on every 1pm ET game:


Dolphins +3.5 at Baltimore: I want to make a case to play Miami again this week but their run game struggled last week vs New England and a few big turnovers swung that game. Even with Baltimore’s secondary injuries their front 7 should get pressure on Tua and he should be in some 3rd and long situations in key spots with the run game not taking off yet.

Washington PK at Detroit: Detroit already had a bad defense and now injuries in the secondary and 3 Oline starters out. Washington has their own defensive holes but they can win in the trenches this game and Detroit will struggle covering McLaurin, Samuel and Dotson. Wentz looked good last week minus 1 big turnover and Washington’s pass rush looked really good. Can’t trust Detroit in this spot. Lions were the most public bet at BetMGM as of Friday.

Bucs -2.5 at Saints: The Bucs will likely run Fournette a lot in this game and Brady will get rid of the ball quick again to minimize New Orleans’ pass rush. 6:8 TD:INT ratio for Brady in 4 regular season games vs the Saints with Tampa and 0-4 record. Back to back road game off SNF is a bad spot for Tampa but at some point they have to get one in this series. This feels like it can be really close to the # and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa Bay’s defense plays really strong and is the difference in the game. Pass for me.

Pats -3 at Steelers: I can’t believe this got to 3 but professional money has been on New England 2 weeks in a row. Tomlin great #’s as a dog but this isn’t the greatest spot for Pittsburgh after a division OT game that was emotional and playing Cleveland Thursday for another division game. New England’s defense was strong last week, Pittsburgh’s defense will be strong even w/o Watt. Personally can’t lay 3 here and slight concern for Pittsburgh in the sandwich spot.

Jets +6.5 at Browns: Another game I wouldn’t lay the points because the Browns play in 4 days and who knows what snap counts will look like late in the game. The Jets defense has the pieces to be good, not sure if they’re gelled yet. Browns defense will definitely give Flacco problems. Browns ran 39 times last week and will want to run all day so the clock should move pretty quick. That plus TNF on deck and Brissett at QB makes laying 6.5 tough.

Colts -3 at Jags: Indy hasn’t won in Jacksonville in 8 years and Pittman and Darius Leonard both out aren’t good for the Colts but the Jags made so many young mistakes last week. Until they finish a game this is a low # to back them on. The Jags starters have a lot of potential but this is young team vs vets. B2B road for Indy after an OT game is not an ideal spot for them either. Hard pass but on paper Jacksonville is a good bet.

Panthers -1 at Giants: Carolina flipped to the favorite this morning. I don’t agree with it moving 3 points but also wouldn’t confidently bet the Giants…it should be close either way. Carolina’s going to be desperate to avoid 0-2 and the Giants are on an emotional high. This will definitely be the loudest MetLife has been in a long time.