I’m on the Jaguars +7, Panthers -1 and Steelers -3.5. Notes and thoughts on a few others:
Bills at Ravens +3: Lamar and Baltimore’s offense can move the ball on Buffalo, especially with all of Buffalo’s injuries in the secondary and JK Dobbins coming back and helping the Ravens run game. Rain and wind could affect this game and the run game for both teams might be more important than normal. Buffalo’s run game has struggled and so has Baltimore’s but getting JK Dobbins back last week helps. This is too close for me to bet it but the Ravens would be the only way I would play it between the Bills injuries in the secondary, the Ravens getting JK Dobbins back, and the Bills coming off a game where a bunch of guys left for heat exhaustion in Miami. Also this game’s been circled for Baltimore from May because it’s the first time they’re playing Buffalo since they lost to them in the playoffs. Harbaugh’s 15-4 ATS as a dog the last 5 years in the regular season and 5-1 ATS as a home dog. Ravens or pass for me and I wouldn’t take the 3 points I’d just play moneyline +150.
Cards at Panthers -1: Even though the media might make you think otherwise, this game isn’t Kyler Murray vs Baker Mayfield – it’s Kyler Murray vs Carolina’s defense and Baker vs Arizona’s defense. Baker has been terrible but Carolina’s defense has been great and Carolina’s run game has been good and Arizona’s defense has been bad. The Cardinals have only 2 sacks the last 2 games, both by Watt, and Watt is playing about 60% of snaps. They have the worst 3rd down defense and give up 8.2 yards per pass attempt (the Panthers give up 5.9). McCaffrey Friday said he felt “great” and Carolina’s beat writer Joe Person said the Panthers are optimistic he plays. Arizona gives up 4.5 yards/carry and has the worst 3rd down defense in the NFL. Arizona’s run game on offense has also been very limited with James Connor averaging 3 ypc. Rondale Moore comes back for Arizona and gives them speed to stretch the field but the redzone offense struggles without D Hop should still be there. Baker’s completed 51% of his passes and the Panthers lost 2 games by a combined 5 points and won the other game. All against better defenses than Arizona. How much worse can he play? Carolina has speed at every level on defense. Arizona has problems on both sides of the ball and started slow in all 3 games and now fly cross country.
Bears at Giants -3: Leonard Williams would’ve helped the Giants in this game because their run defense can be exposed and Khalil Herbert can run on them even without David Montgomery. Fields’ numbers are horrible and this offense is one-dimensional. Daniel Jones looked a lot better Monday night than he has in previous years and this offense can move the ball even without Sterling Shepard. No concerns for the Giants offense, just for the defense stopping the run. Giants or pass, just not a game I love and the Giants play in London next week
Commanders at Cowboys: The Cowboys are clearly the better team on a few different fronts it’s just not a great spot for them off MNF on the road. A shorter week of prep might lead to a slower start but the Commanders have been awful starting games and might nullify that edge – Washington’s been outscored 46-0 in the 1sthalf the last 2 games. Washington’s defense has given up 5.4 yards per carry on the ground and that doesn’t bode well vs Dallas’s run game. The Cowboys get back Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz today and even though they notoriously are not good as home favorites, the fact that Cooper Rush is playing has made everyone else raise their game and it feels like everyone is dialed in. Wentz was 1-3 in Dallas with the Eagles and Washington is starting a Center today who’s a veteran but they signed him 17 days ago. 9 sacks vs Philly. Short week or not this would be a disappointment if the Cowboys lost this game because they can win it on both sides of the ball.
Player prop stats & info from Edghouse.com:
Travis Etienne’s over receiving yards line is 17.5. He had more than 17.5 yards receiving in all 3 games and is averaging 27 receiving yards per game. Wind will be about 20-25 mph in Philadelphia today and Trevor Lawrence may throw more short passes between the wind and the Eagles pass rush.
Jamaal Williams’ over rush yards is 68.5 with D’Andre Swift out. He got 20 carries last week vs Minnesota and rushed for 87 yards. The Seahawks allow 5.1 yards per carry and is coming off a game giving up 175 yards to the Falcons runningbacks. Detroit is hurt on offense but they love to run the ball and have had really good blocking.