NFL and college football bets this week all with writeups below. The guys that I mention below I’ve bet their picks at different periods over the last 5 years. They’ve all been on Twitter for years with winning track records and I included their writeups for the games and where you can find them.
I bet and sent out the Jets +9 yesterday and put the writeup in here.
Missouri +4 [#130] vs Kansas State 12pm ET
Both teams are off to a 2-0 start while playing lack-luster opponents in week 1 and 2. The Wildcats are led by Sophomore QB Will Howard Jr, who’s thrown for 547 yards, 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s. They return 8 starters on offense, of which 5 of those 8 are on their OL. The OL has already shown great signs as Howard has been sacked just once this year in two games. Star RB Deuce Vaughn has departed and left the Wildcats with DJ Giddens and Treshaun Ward. They’ve both had 27 carries this year, but Giddens looks to be their guy (6.7ypc, 180yds). Kansas State has taken a step back in their WR core as well as they lost 4 of their top 5. They did return Phillip Brooks, but this department is lacking depth and the talent from last season. On the defensive side of the ball, KSU returns 5 starters, but their secondary has some major question marks. Safety Kobe Savage (love the name) is back after missing their last 4 games last year with injury, but they added just two low-tier transfers at CB. They’ve given up 216 YPG through the air in their two games, and I expect them to give up even more moving forward this year. KSU also lost their kicker/punter Ty Zentner, who went 11 for 11 in FG’s last year. This year K Chris Tennant takes over and is 1/1 so far, but last year he finished just 9/14, 64.3%. The Tigers of Missouri are led by QB Brady Cook, who threw for 2,724 (14/7 ratio) and rushed for a whopping 585 yards. This year he’s off to a great start, boasting a 77.5% completion rate along with 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The offense returns 7 starters and they, much like KSU, will have a very experienced OL. Cook has been sacked 5x thus-far, but I somewhat expected that early on as they work in transfers Cam’Ron Johnson (HOU) and Marcellus Johnson (EMU). The Tigers backfield returns Cody Schrader and Nathaniel Peat and will produce better numbers than last year given their experience/OL. Schrader is off to a hot start, 222 yards and 5.4 YPC. The WR core certainly has talent all-around, and this year seems to be Luther Burden III’s potential breakout year as he already has 213 yards on 15 receptions with 1 TD. Four WR’s have scored already, and will look to take advantage of the inexperienced Wildcat secondary. Missouri is tied 9th in the nation for sacks per game, averaging 4 sacks. The defense returns 8 starters and hit the portal with some bigger-name guys like LB Tre’vez Johnson (FLA) and DB Sidney Williams (FSU). They return all 4 starters in the secondary and should be able to limit Howard Jr. I’m not sure why (other than last year’s success) Kansas State is being so hyped-up. They’ve lost a ton of key parts to their offense, and their secondary is questionable. Still a talented team no doubt, but I don’t see this team as a top 15, or even 20 team in the country. I expect Missouri to expose them through the air, which will open the ground game up. This line opened at 6 (Pinnacle) and while I do wish I jumped on it earlier, I still am more than willing to play +4 as it would not shock me at all to see Missouri win this game outright. Give me the hungry home-dawgs who are looking to prove they’ve gotten much better.
@TripleSharpe on Twitter
Florida +6 (#176) vs Tennessee 7pm ET Saturday
Tennessee hasn’t won in The Swamp since 2003. That’s 10 straight losses. Struggling offensively against the likes of Virginia & Austin Peay, this Tennessee offense isn’t the same after losing 4 key starters to last year’s draft. Florida should be able to limit Tennessee on the ground, & with their recent struggles through the air, it could be tough sledding in Gainesville. This Tennessee offense just isn’t as good as last year. Look for the early season mistakes to continue & for Florida to capitalize by leaning on their run game, controlling the clock, & having their monster OL dominate the LOS. Also, Billy Napier is 17-5-0 ATS as a dog (77%) and covers by an average of 8ppg. I have this game closer to a FG, so we’ll gladly take the points with Florida.
@HammerHeadBets on Twitter. 296-192-14 college football record the last 2 seasons.
Jets +9 over Cowboys
Week 2 in the NFL is known as overreaction week and this game epitomizes that. The Jets had more hype than any team in the league heading into the season and the excitement came crashing down when Rodgers got hurt. The Jets defense played out of their mind and won one of the most entertaining games of the opening week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys couldn’t have looked better in their opener, blowing the Giants out 40-0 in a game that was over almost as quickly as it started. Everything that could have gone wrong for the Giants did go wrong and the Giants fell into an early 16-0 deficit they were never able to recover from. The Giants were a very popular underdog last week and there is a very high likelihood that if you bet against Dallas last week you are not running to the window to fade them again — especially after watching Zach Wilson struggle to move the ball against the Bills. I certainly have my concerns about Zach Wilson but I do not think he is as terrible of a QB as everyone is portraying him to be this week. Yes, he did struggle early on against the Bills and no, he has not proven anything yet in the NFL, but to his credit, he did make enough plays to win the game last weekend had an impressive drive in the 4th quarter. Maybe he has improved, or maybe he hasn’t, but one thing I do know is the Jets coaching staff (who knows Wilson better than anyone) has enough confidence in him to name him the starter this week, and that’s enough for me. And honestly I am not even too concerned about Wilson in this game. If this game comes down to Wilson needing to orchestrate a touchdown drive to backdoor the spread then this handicap was incorrect. The Jets have a Super Bowl caliber defense and a great running back duo in Breece Hall (who looked explosive as ever coming off his ACL tear) and Dalvin Cook. The Jets defense is more than capable of keeping the Jets in this game and the running game can move the chains while taking pressure off of Wilson. The Cowboys defense looked elite which is no surprise, they are the best defensive unit in the NFL, but I still have my questions about their new look offense, especially against a defense as talented as the Jets. Last week was their first game in four years without OC Kellen Moore calling the plays, and the playcalling was very conservative as you would expect from a team looking to protect a big lead and milk the clock. Dak only attempted 24 passes last week and completed only 13 of them for 143 yards and 0 TDs. Last season Dak was an interception machine and I certainly do not expect him to play a clean game here against an extremely opportunistic Jets defense. This is the lowest total of the week and I expect this to be a defensive battle where points are at a premium. This could very easily be the first team to 17 wins, and if that is the case, the Jets offense would only need to generate 10 points assuming that the defense doesn’t score which I think is a very real possibility. Typically, I would worry about a letdown for the Jets after winning in such a dramatic, emotional, overtime victory on the anniversary of 9/11 then having to travel on a short week — and those are certainly valid concerns. However, I still think that the addrenneline and motivation from losing Rodgers will carry over one more week. Everyone in the media is saying the Jets season is now over and how Wilson cannot be the QB moving forward and how they should be looking to sign a quarterback like Carson Wentz or trade for a backup to salvage the season. All of those negative narratives can be highly motivating and I think the Jets will use that negativity to fuel them for one more game — I do not anticipate low energy levels from the visitors in this one. Bottom line, the Jets are a very talented football team and backup QB or not, this is a lot of points in what I expect to be a tightly contested, one score game throughout.
@QuanNFL on Twitter. 62-34 +47.5 NFL last season
10-6 NFL this season (preaseason + Week 1)
Bengals -3 vs Ravens
This is a fade of the Ravens who come into this game banged up after suffering injuries on the offensive line with Left tackle Ronnie Stanley (sprained knee) and Tyler Linderbaum (sprained ankle). Making matters worse RB J.K. Dobbins tore his Achilles and the secondary is also banged up with injuries to safety Marcus Williams (pec) and cornerback Marlon Humphrey. The last thing you want when you’re facing Joe Burrow, Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins is a banged up secondary. This is the perfect bounce back spot on a Bengals team who lost 24-3 to a Browns team who is 5-1 against Joe Burrow, winning by an average of 14.6 points per game.
You can find Raheem on The Ringer Gambling podcast during the week and FanDuel TV on Sundays.
BYU vs. Arkansas Under 48
The Arkansas Razorbacks have a good quarterback in K.J. Jefferson, but he doesn’t have the skill position talent around him that he had in the past. Rocket Sanders is out this game with an injury. The Razorbacks lost their top four WR’s from last year too. Arkansas has slowed their tempo down to a crawl. They are 107th out of 133 teams in the country in terms of tempo. BYU is averaging just 5.34 yards per play (94th in the country) through two games. Those two games were against Sam Houston State and Southern Utah. The Cougars are 115th in the nation in YPC. BYU is 109th in tempo so they too are very slow paced. I see a grinder of a game here with this one staying under the total. I’ll take the Under.
@KyleHunterPicks on Twitter. 57-24 in college football season last season.
Seahawks +5 -110 (2u)
This seems like a Week 1 overreaction spot. The Lions beat the Super Bowl champs in primetime and now head back to Detroit for their home opener. Meanwhile, Seattle could not have looked worse in a bad divisional home loss. However the Lions scored just 14 points on offense against a weakened Chiefs defense and would have lost if the Chiefs WR’s didn’t have countless drops. The look ahead line for this game was Lions -2.5. I think Seattle will be able to attack this Lions secondary and I have these teams rated closer than the market currently. Playable down to +4
@ChampionPicks on Twitter
Trends: (Since 2005)
- Week 2 road teams off a double-digit loss: 36-21 ATS (63%)
- Week 2 teams off a double-digit loss vs a team not off a double-digit loss: 36-18 ATS (67%). When they are on the road: 20-4 ATS (83%)
- Week 2 favorites of more than 3 points after winning as a dog in Week 1: (39%)
NFL road underdogs went 8-2 ATS in Week 1 and now are 9-2 ATS this season after the Vikings covered last night (at 6.5 and 7). Since 2018 now road underdogs in Weeks 1 and 2 are 65-37 ATS (64%)
Stat from Edghouse. @Edghouse on Twitter. Analytics for the NFL, college football, MLB and basketball with daily reports of ATS, total, prop and derivative bet analytics.
Rhamondre Stevenson (O50.5 -115 rushing yards) has a great matchup against a Miami rushing defense that allowed the Chargers to rush for 234 yards in Week 1. Austin Ekeler (16 carries, 117 yards, 1 TD, 7.3 YPC) and Joshua Kelly (16 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD, 5.7 YPC) had their way against this rushing defense, and the Patriots are likely going to work to string together some long, deliberate drives to keep Tua, Tyreek and Jaylen Waddle off the field. Stevenson logged 58 snaps to Zeke’s 28 in Week 1 against Philly, logging 12 carries (albeit for 25 yards against a really good Philly front) and catching 6 balls for 64 yards. He’s a focal point of the The Patriots offense and should get enough touches to get over this number against a Dolphins defense that allowed 5 runs of 10+ yards and 5.9 YPC in Week 1. Miami also ranked 26th in RB receiving yards allowed in 2022 and allowed Austin Ekeler to catch 4 balls for 47 yards – Stevenson should have an opportunity in the screen game to exceed his receiving yard total of 20.5.
Zach Wilson: Wilson (U175.5 passing yards) is going to have an extremely difficult time against a Dallas defense that has one of the league’s top pass rushes (3rd in sacks, 5th in QB hits per game) behind a Jets offensive line that failed Aaron Rodgers badly early in Monday night’s game against Buffalo. Wilson finished with 140 yards on 14-21 passing against Buffalo’s defense and looked very jittery in the pocket against an above average pass rush. Dallas logged 7 sacks against NYG’s bad offensive line in Week 1 and held Daniel Jones to just 104 yards and 2 INT’s on 15-28 passing. Wilson is not going to have enough time to sit in the pocket and allow routes deep down the field to develop, and we like Wilson to go under his yardage total to get exposure to the strength of Dallas’ pass rush and secondary.
You can find Pat and his work at Sporting-Intelligence.com
Jets +9 at Cowboys 2 units
Defense, special teams and the run game can keep the Jets competitive and in lower scoring games. 5 sacks, 5.8 yards per attempt vs Josh Allen Monday and they can get a lot of pressure without blitzing. The Jets defense will likely have to force 1 to 2 turnovers and the offense will have to lean on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook a lot because 1 to 2 turnovers from Zach Wilson vs the Cowboys defense is probably a given. 172 rush yards for the Jets vs Buffalo and both RBs were involved in the short pass game. Good redzone defense forcing a few field goals and limiting big plays would give the Jets a realistic shot at keeping the Cowboys around 23 or 20 points and playing a one score game. The Jets defense likely rallies around the situation.