*Would play up to -3.5 -120
This is a great bounce back spot for the Browns after their nationally televised loss against the Steelers on Monday Night. Cleveland outgained the Steelers by over 150 yards but lost the game because the Steelers scored two defensive touchdowns. I don’t see the Titans defense replicating that, especially on the road.
Watson had two crucial fumbles, but outside of that the Browns well-balanced offense moved the ball up and down the field all night — accumulating over 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing. Their defense was as excellent as advertised. They didn’t allow the Steelers into the red zone a single time all game, only allowed a grand total of nine first downs and only allowed one touchdown — a long flukey play on a busted coverage. Through two weeks, Cleveland’s defense has allowed one total touchdown while holding their two opponents to a combined 3.7 yards per play — a truly elite unit in Jim Schwartz’s new scheme. If it wasn’t for turnovers, the Browns would have won that game by double digits and this spread would be closer to the -4.5 that it opened at, a truly excellent buy-low spot on the home team.
Yes, everyone knows about Vrabel’s elite track record as an underdog, a league best 28-18 (61%) ATS since 2018 when he became a head coach. What gets lost in that stat however is that the majority of those covers came as large underdogs. As a favorite of 3.5 points or less (like he is in this game) Vrabel is only 7-7 ATS in his career, no significant edge there whatsoever. The Titans lost their final seven games of the season last year because they were the most injured team in the league, and now they are once again banged up through two weeks, particularly on the offensive line which is a nightmare scenario against Myles Garrett, ZaDarius Smith, and Co. The Titans have not been a strong road team against top-tier foes under Vrabel, including losses of 25 and 34 points last year against the Eagles and Bills respectively. The Titans got their first win of the season last week (a big ‘exhale’ after two razor close games to begin the season) while the Browns had a week to seethe about blowing a game they deserved to win against their hated rival. I’m very happy laying a field goal with the superior team here, even without Nick Chubb. Take the Browns.
@QuanNFL on Twitter. 62-34 +47.5 NFL last season
13-8 NFL this season (preaseason + Week 1, 2)